Book Overview & Insight — On the Edge By Nate Silver

 

This book is part memoir, part investigation, and part manual on how professional risk takers — gamblers, investors, military planners, and a few unusual entrepreneurs — think about an uncertain world. 

If you’d rather watch instead of reading, check out the video overview below.

The big idea

What can people who make their living taking risks teach the rest of us? That question drives the book. Silver argues that the world is becoming more complex and uncertain, and that certain people — the ones who live at the edge of risk — have developed mental tools that help them navigate it. If you learn to think more like them, you’ll make fewer avoidable mistakes and better bets on the things that matter.

One framing he uses (and that I found helpful) divides the world into two camps: the River and the Village. The River is full of gamblers, venture capitalists, and others who think probabilistically. The Village is the academics, the institutions, and the social groups that prize certainty and narrative. The tension between these modes of thinking is a recurring theme.

Key themes and takeaways

Think probabilistically

Most people don’t naturally think in probabilities. We live in a world of seemingly single events — a big career decision, investments, where to go to school— and it’s tempting to treat each as unique. Silver emphasizes expected value: focus on repeatable processes and the likely long-term return rather than obsessing over single outcomes.

Process over outcome

Successful risk takers aren’t married to one result. They adopt repeatable processes that, over many iterations, produce favorable outcomes.

Strategic empathy

One of my favorite takeaways: strategic empathy. It’s not sentimental. It’s the habit of modeling what other people will actually do and why. Poker players do this naturally — you put yourself in your opponent’s position and think through their incentives. So do effective negotiators and military planners. It’s a skill you can practice: try to explain a decision you disagree with from the decision‑maker’s point of view.

Take more appropriate risks — and protect the downside

Silver and the people he interviews repeatedly note that many of us are too risk‑averse. We protect ourselves from downside so compulsively that we miss opportunities where a reasonably sized bet could compound into something much larger. That doesn’t mean reckless risk-taking: it means sizing bets so that downside is survivable and upside is meaningful.

How the book is structured

  • Gambling and poker: Background on how gamblers think. Useful if you want to see probabilistic thinking in action; you can skim if you prefer to get to the broader lessons.
  • Intermission: traits of successful risk takers: A compact list of habits — including strategic empathy and process orientation — that are worth reviewing to see what you can take and use.
  • Risk in business and tech: Deep dives into venture capital, AI debates, and why people assign different probabilities to existential scenarios.
  • FTX, SBF, and effective altruism: A look at how good intentions, long‑term thinking, and sloppiness in process led to catastrophic outcomes.
  • Closing thoughts: Silver’s reflections on nuclear war, AI, and how to adopt better thinking practices for a messy world.

Notable stories and examples

The book is full of anecdotes — from poker rooms to venture‑backed startups — that make the mental models concrete. Two sections stood out for me:

  • AI and the probability of doom: Silver interviews people across the spectrum, from those who see human extinction as likely to those who take a more measured view. The useful part isn’t picking a side, it’s seeing how each side constructs probabilities from evidence and assumptions.
  • FTX and SBF: A tragic case study in ignoring process. Long‑term thinking without guardrails — and without transparent accountability — can produce spectacular moral hazard. Silver’s reporting helps explain how the incentives were misaligned and how things unraveled.

How I’m using these ideas

Reading this book nudged me towards a few changes. They’re simple, and build on some things I’m already doing:

  1. Keep a short decision log. For any nontrivial decision I write down best case, worst case, most likely case, and a rough probability. Review these over time and correct course when needed.
  2. Make processes explicit. If something works even a little, ask how it could scale: more time, more capital, more attention. If scaling it doesn’t add downside, double down.
  3. Seek people who model uncertainty well. Conversations with people who estimate and track their forecasts will sharpen your sense of where you’re overconfident or underconfident.
  4. Practice strategic empathy. Before dismissing a decision you don’t like, try to explain it from the other person’s incentives and constraints.

Who should read this book?

If you want to improve your judgment under uncertainty — whether you’re managing money, running a project, or just trying to make better life decisions — this is a useful read.

It’s also enjoyable if you like behind‑the‑scenes portraits of gamblers, VCs, and the risky corners of tech and finance. You can skip parts (the poker chapters, for example) and still get a lot out of it.

Final thoughts

On the Edge isn’t a neat little checklist for avoiding ruin. It’s a set of habits, mental shifts, and stories that help you see uncertainty more clearly. The central idea — favor processes that have positive expected value and learn to estimate — is simple, but applying it consistently changes how you behave.

If you’re interested in sharpening your decision-making, start small: write down one decision this week with probabilities and outcomes, and review it in a month. It’s a modest habit, but it compounds.

Grab a copy on Amazon here: https://adammoody.org/on-the-edge

Or via the WorldCat library system: https://adammoody.org/worldcat-on-the-edge

 

A Pattern of Islands Book Review

 

In this book overview, I share my thoughts on A Pattern of Islands by Sir Arthur Grimble, an autobiography that offers a unique glimpse into life in what is now Kiribati, a nation in the South Pacific. Grimble’s account is both a personal memoir and an insightful record from the early 1900s, chronicling his experiences as an English colonial administrator and his deep interactions with the local people and their culture.

If video is more your thing, you can watch the book overview below.

The Big Idea: Sharing a Way of Life

This book doesn’t revolve around a single big idea but rather paints a picture of the people, their traditions, and the challenges of colonial administration for a new cadet who comes to the islands with a wife and eventually has children.

Grimble joined the British Colonial Service in 1914 as a cadet and was stationed in the Gilbert and Ellice Islands, now Kiribati, until around 1933 (there was a return – check out his Wikipedia page if you’re interested). His role evolved over time, but what stands out is his genuine desire to understand and learn from the islanders rather than simply govern them.

His approach was one of interest and respect, which is evident not only in his storytelling but also in third-party accounts of his service. He wasn’t just an outsider imposing rules; he became part of the society, even being adopted by a local clan, which allowed him to gain a deeper perspective on the community and its customs.

Respecting Traditions and Religion

One of the more poignant themes Grimble touches on is the impact of missionary activity on native religious practices. He reflects with sadness on how missionaries often took a harsh stance against indigenous beliefs, including ancestor worship and rituals involving keeping skulls as a means of communicating with ancestors.

Grimble suggests that had missionaries taken a different, more respectful approach, the religions and conversion to Christianity might have been strengthened rather than diminished.

Immersing in Local Life: Adoption and Social Integration

One of the fascinating aspects of the book is how Grimble became integrated into the local society. Through adoption by a local clan, he wasn’t just an observer but a participant in the social fabric of the islands. This allowed him to describe native customs and social structures with an insider’s understanding, something rare for colonial administrators of that era.

His duties as an administrator went beyond governance; he was often called upon to resolve disputes, oversee health initiatives, and manage infrastructure projects. The book has stories that range from the humorous to the challenging, showing the complexities of cultural exchange and governance.

Memorable Stories: Hunting and Tattoos

Among the many intriguing anecdotes, one story about octopus hunting stands out. Grimble recounts how local boys, not grown adults, would hunt large octopuses for fun, an activity that involved one person acting as bait and the other as the hunter. The hunt, which he describes as terrifying, is “nothing but child’s play” to the Gilbertees. Not something I think I would want to undertake myself!

Another fascinating experience Grimble shares is his decision to get tattooed, a practice deeply rooted in local culture. The tattooing was done using a flat splinter of bone, about a quarter of an inch long, made from the shin bone of the grandfather of the tattooist. The process involved repeatedly going over the same area, covering both his arms, and symbolizes a strong connection to the islanders’ traditions and beliefs and ability to withstand what he described as intense and long-lasting pain. Another part of the tattoo story that stood out was the use of girls that would do the wailing for him!

Beliefs in Magic and the Impact of Disease

Magic and spiritual beliefs played a significant role in the lives of the islanders, and Grimble discusses how these beliefs influenced daily life and governance. While I don’t want to go too deeply into details to avoid spoiling the stories, it factors in at many points and ranges from humorous to sad.

Another reality he confronted was the frequent outbreaks of disease. Grimble notes that it was common for people to be incapacitated for weeks due to illness, with limited medical care available. Often, there was only one doctor for the entire island chain, and access to medical help could be delayed by storms or other obstacles.

The Challenges of Distance and Isolation

One of the most striking aspects of Grimble’s account when compared to modern travel is the extreme isolation of the islands. Travel to and from England, or even Australia, was a long, expensive, and infrequent ordeal. Families had to plan their lives around the arrival of ships, which might come only once a year. Supplies had to be ordered months in advance, and there was little opportunity for resupply.

Financially, colonial administrators like Grimble were modestly paid, and the hardships they endured were significant.

A Personal and Well-Written Snapshot

A Pattern of Islands is not an exhaustive ethnography but rather a personal narrative seen through the eyes of an English administrator who truly cared about the people he served. It captures a specific time and place, offering readers a snapshot of Kiribati’s culture, traditions, and challenges in the early twentieth century.

For anyone interested in the South Pacific, colonial history, or cultural anthropology, this book is a fascinating and valuable read. It covers a range of topics from magic and hunting to social integration and the impact of colonialism, all told with warmth, respect, and a genuine curiosity.

I highly recommend seeking out a copy from your library to explore these stories and insights for yourself.

You can find the book via the WorldCat system here, or via Amazon here.

 

News From Tartary: A Journey Through Time and Terrain

 

Sometimes, a book comes along that’s more than just a story—it’s a portal to a world and era that feels almost unimaginable today. News From Tartary by Peter Fleming is one of those books. Written nearly a hundred years ago, it chronicles a 2-person “expedition” from what was then Peking (now Beijing) all the way to Kashmir, traversing vast, politically unstable, and little-known regions of Central Asia. As someone fascinated by travel, history, and the people that undertake these travels, this book gave me plenty to think about.

If you’re more inclined to video – check out the video version below.

Why This Journey Still Matters

What struck me most about Fleming’s account was the sheer scale of the adventure, especially considering the time period—1935. Traveling seven months through areas where maps were outdated or nonexistent, where roads were often just caravan trails, and where political borders were uncertain, is a feat that’s hard to fully grasp today. No GPS, no instant communication, and sometimes no mail service to speak of. The logistics alone were staggering.

But beyond the practical challenges, the journey highlights something timeless: the balance between caution and courage in unfamiliar places. Fleming’s reflections on carrying weapons stand out as a rare moment of wisdom. He writes:

“There are two possible explanations for finding yourself in a position in which you feel that you have got to use firearms in self defense. Either you have been foolish, or you have been unlucky… If you are entirely dependent for your food, your guides, your transport, your continued existence on the goodwill of the local inhabitants, it is as well not to decimate the latter.”

This struck me as a lesson far beyond travel—about navigating any challenging situation by valuing relationships and diplomacy over force. Sometimes, survival depends more on respect and patience than on quick, dramatic reactions.

The People Behind the Journey

Another aspect I found fascinating was the dynamic between Peter Fleming and his travel companion, Ella “Kini” Maynard, a Swiss woman with her own impressive history of exploration and sporting feats. For a woman to undertake such a journey at that time, in such harsh and politically complex regions, was extraordinary. Their partnership not only made the expedition possible but also added depth to the narrative. It made me think about the importance of having trusted, capable companions in any endeavor—whether it’s travel, work, or life challenges.

Ella’s perspective is captured in her own book, Forbidden Journey: From Peking to Kashmir, which I’m eager to dive into next and took some inter-library digging to find a copy in English.

Reflections on Historical Context and Modern Perspectives

Reading a travelogue from nearly a century ago naturally comes with its share of outdated views and cultural assumptions. Some descriptions and attitudes in the book feel jarring or “cringy” by today’s standards. Yet, I found it important to separate those moments from the overall value of the work. These were reflections of the era’s mindset, not necessarily malicious intent. Recognizing this allows us to appreciate the historical context without ignoring progress in how we understand and respect different cultures.

In a way, this book challenged me to think about how I perceive and interpret the world around me, especially when encountering unfamiliar cultures or ideas. It’s a reminder to stay curious but also critical, aware of my own biases and the lens through which I view others.

Maps, Elevation, and the Physical Challenge

The book includes some remarkable maps that trace the route across high mountain ranges and vast deserts. The elevation changes alone—reaching 10,000 to 15,000 feet—speak to the physical demands of the journey. It’s easy to forget how much environment shapes an expedition, especially when traveling by horseback, camel, or on foot. Weather, altitude, and terrain aren’t just background details—they are the main characters in any travel story like this.

So, What’s the Takeaway?

News From Tartary isn’t just a travelogue; it’s a shared experience of adventure, human connection, and the unpredictability of life on the road. It reminded me that:

  • Luck and humility play major roles—sometimes, success boils down to being in the right place at the right time and knowing when to yield rather than fight.
  • Travel is as much about people as places—building trust and respect with locals can mean the difference between survival and failure.
  • Historical perspectives shape our understanding—reading older works requires balancing appreciation with critical awareness.
  • Endurance and environment are inseparable—physical challenges shape the story as much as the cultural or political ones.

For anyone curious about Central Asia, travel history, or the spirit of exploration, this book offers a compact yet rich window into a world that few have seen, especially back then. It’s a reminder that the world is vast and full of stories waiting to be uncovered, often in places we least expect.

Find A Copy Of News From Tartary To Read

 

Setting Up BirdNET-Pi on a Raspberry Pi Zero 2W: Lessons, Fixes, and Eventual Success

When I first heard about BirdNET-Pi, I knew I wanted to give it a try — a way to automatically detect and identify bird species from my backyard using a simple Raspberry Pi without shelling out several hundred dollars for a dedicated device seemed like a good idea.

I decided to set up BirdNET-Pi on a Raspberry Pi Zero 2W, thinking it would be a relatively straightforward process. While it was a rewarding project, it also came with a few unexpected challenges, from tricky WiFi issues to microphone compatibility problems.

I wanted to share my experience: the hardware I used, the resources that helped, the obstacles I hit (and how I solved them), and some tips to make your own setup a little smoother – other people’s posts and forum threads were so helpful, I hope that someone is able to make their setup a little bit smoother from mine own small contribution.

Hardware Used

Software & Key Resources

Initial Setup and Obstacles

WiFi Challenges

  • Raspberry Pi Zero 2W doesn’t work reliably with 5GHz WiFi.
  • Setting WiFi via editing wpa_supplicant.conf after imaging didn’t work — had to reimage with correct 2.4GHz settings baked into the image.
    • Note: I have had some success with this – when I’ve had connection issues (twice over about a week), I turned on the hotspot on my phone, edited the wpa_supplicant.conf file to match the hotspot, rebooted the pi and it worked…then edited the file again back to the main router WiFi, rebooted…and it worked. I can’t explain why.
      • This doesn’t take long, so if you think you need to reimage the SD card just do it.
  • Additional router setting tweak: Set 2.4GHz WiFi mode to N only (not b/g/n mixed).
    • Note: I changed back to b/g/n mixed after a day or so and it ran fine, until it didn’t and I had to switch it back while testing my hotspot (see above).

Imaging and OS

  • Selected an older, stable version of Pi OS (Bullseye) rather than the newest (because some reports mentioned issues with BirdNET-Pi installs).
  • Make sure you’re selecting a 64-bit image – needed for BirdNET-Pi
  • Be sure to click through the tabs before imaging and set the username, password, and enable SSH.

Installation and First Boot

  • Installation of BirdNET-Pi after flashing SD card took ~30–45 minutes.
  • Needed a reboot after install.
  • Logging in via birdnetpi1.local (default login birdnet, no password).

Microphone Issues and Solutions

Software Tweaks and Key Fixes

  • Strange bird results (wrong continents):
    • Double-checked Latitude and Longitude settings (were correct).
    • Switched BirdNET model to a newer version (older model gave bad results).
    • I wasn’t able to connect via the browser given the stock setup (birdnetpi1.local) after a day or two…I’ve since connected directly via the IP address.
      • If you’re not sure what your IP is, try looking in your router – it should identify as “birdnetpi” under device name. I’ve also seen some forum posts about issues with a hostname ending in a number which would make “birdnet1” problematic.
BirdNET model selection in Tools->Settings
  • Recording settings:
    • Changed recording length from 15s to 30s.
    • Matched extraction length to 30s.
  • Privacy settings:
    • Lowered privacy threshold to 1% to allow more identifications.

Additional / Future Items

  • I noticed that it seemed to be running slow (backlog of analysis) and got some help from handy ChatGPT to create a Crontab job to record the pi CPU core temperature. Sure enough it was getting close enough to throttling temps (80C I believe) at times during load spikes that I decided to look for a way to increase cooling.
    • Using what I had, I drilled some holes in the plastic case and am testing a 30mm fan connected to the 5V power pins. So far, very good results.
  • I’d like to find/make a better case that actually holds the fan (fan is virtually silent)
    • Perhaps including the ability to turn it off and on only when a threshold temp is reached (say, 60C). That is not possible directly from the power pins, and would need a 3rd party board, or some wiring + transistor/resistor, I believe.

Exploring Urban Sketching: A Review of Archisketcher

If you’re interested in the world of urban sketching, you’re in for a good read with Simone Ridyard’s book, Archisketcher. This book serves as a good gateway into the art of sketching architecture and capturing the essence of urban landscapes. Whether you’re a complete beginner or someone who has dabbled in drawing, this book offers good insights and advice that can help you advance your skills.

Why Urban Sketching?

Urban sketching is more than just a hobby; it’s a way to engage with your surroundings. Recently, I found myself drawn to the idea of capturing the world around me through this method. I realized that when you take the time to sketch, you’re not only documenting a scene but also investing in a deeper understanding of your environment. There’s lots of other reasons you may want to be drawing urban environments, but for me that’s a big part of it.

A Personal Journey into Sketching

For context, I have been doodling and sketching for years, but it was never a consistent practice. Over the last six months, I made the decision to sketch regularly. Like many skills, drawing requires practice to improve. I stumbled upon various images of urban sketches and felt inspired to begin drawing buildings, streets, and scenes from my travels and daily walks.

What Makes Archisketcher Stand Out?

One of the key strengths of Archisketcher is its comprehensive overview of urban sketching techniques. Ridyard provides a solid starting point for those who may not have any prior experience. The book is structured in a way that gradually introduces concepts and techniques, making it accessible for beginners. It doesn’t just focus on one style; instead, it showcases various approaches from different artists.

Diverse Perspectives

What I found particularly fascinating is how the book presents the same location through the eyes of different artists. This variety allows readers to see different interpretations and styles, which is incredibly enriching. You can observe how the same scene can be captured in countless ways, depending on the artist’s medium and perspective.

Tools and Techniques

While Archisketcher does touch on tools and materials, it doesn’t overwhelm you with details about specific brands or types. Instead, it encourages exploration and experimentation. This approach resonated with me, as it allows for a more organic development of your own style. The book provides insights into various mediums, such as pens, pencils, and paints, without dictating what you must use.

Incorporating People in Sketches

Another highlight of the book is its discussion on including people in your sketches. Urban environments are vibrant and full of life, and Ridyard showcases some ways that you can still include the very human aspect of urban life while not making it the focus (if you don’t want to). Learning to sketch people can be difficult, but the book provides strategies that can help ease that process and I’m currently reading another book to help with this as well (Sketching People – review to come).

Advice for Aspiring Sketchers

For anyone looking to start urban sketching, I highly recommend Archisketcher. It’s filled with practical advice and encouragement. The book really feels like a friendly guide that is gently pointing you in the right directions as you explore your options and ideas.

Final Thoughts

In conclusion, Archisketcher by Simone Ridyard is an good resource for anyone interested in urban sketching. The book covers a wide array of techniques, perspectives, and styles that can inspire both newcomers and seasoned artists alike. It’s a solid addition to your sketching library, and I can’t recommend it enough. Grab a copy from Amazon or see if you local library has an edition if you want to check it out first.